Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 14.447616 16.414983 18.675906 21.495241 24.958000 29.127959 3.461722e+01
2025-03-09 12.046531 14.496350 17.562436 21.777549 27.583786 35.566639 4.789620e+01
2025-03-16 10.339795 12.871436 16.207192 21.084137 28.334099 39.280857 5.838638e+01
2025-03-23 9.330344 11.936502 15.518152 21.034190 29.801985 44.234770 7.264874e+01
2025-03-30 8.318808 10.845743 14.422589 20.141099 29.693386 46.502442 8.302952e+01
2025-04-06 7.460744 9.868325 13.354486 19.093644 29.069871 47.622598 9.155954e+01
2025-04-13 6.806441 9.117891 12.532917 18.305195 28.712931 49.106423 1.016943e+02
2025-04-20 6.882855 9.443191 13.373528 20.365927 33.930477 63.570160 1.560977e+02
2025-04-27 6.655626 9.279659 13.414253 21.037796 36.628400 73.632715 2.090969e+02
2025-05-04 6.185972 8.697873 12.710620 20.252483 36.127906 75.613779 2.348065e+02
2025-05-11 6.002838 8.555051 12.723568 20.806957 38.661014 86.797012 3.188592e+02
2025-05-18 5.694764 8.186399 12.314501 20.484687 39.119248 92.240223 3.851647e+02
2025-05-25 5.416895 7.863018 11.981734 20.326241 40.084528 100.320308 4.962412e+02
2025-06-01 5.217271 7.656432 11.839161 20.543628 42.077998 113.319301 7.076032e+02
2025-06-08 4.920224 7.264622 11.326231 19.908083 41.683284 117.324881 8.563236e+02
2025-06-15 4.727470 7.038486 11.099062 19.861790 42.904521 128.846055 1.213676e+03
2025-06-22 4.453191 6.655513 10.550264 19.037847 41.735118 129.347323 1.397915e+03
2025-06-29 4.181699 6.264425 9.962372 18.069931 39.978543 126.399513 1.498068e+03
2025-07-06 3.958020 5.947126 9.496892 17.340228 38.822841 126.002954 1.697375e+03
2025-07-13 4.053600 6.196634 10.135680 19.245383 46.309478 177.858911 7.180617e+03
2025-07-20 3.997276 6.169454 10.228800 19.865133 49.905671 213.792644 2.928212e+04
2025-07-27 3.809116 5.892597 9.801765 19.140673 48.602010 214.157750 4.671162e+04
2025-08-03 3.753070 5.855451 9.858861 19.652276 51.970664 256.026132 7.934996e+06